Ukraine: "Hazelnut": the New Russian Missile

 

On 21 November 2024, Russia hit the city of Dnipro, in E Ukraine, with a new type of missile. The missile traversed the distance from its "Cabbage Canyon" Caspian Sea launch site to Dnipro in 15min. Thirty minutes before launch, Russia used to the ICBM launch protocol to notify the US. Initially, based on flight characteristics and damage assessments, it was mis-identified as an RS-26 Rubezh Intercontinental Ballistic Missile.

Further evidence revealed that it was not a Rubezh, but a new type of missile. The "Oreshnik" ("Hazelnut") is a Russian medium-range missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, but apparently not capable of traveling the 5,000km minimum needed to meet ICBM definition. Various military experts are currently estimating a possible range of 2,000-3,000km. Ukrainian intelligence assessed that the missile traveled at Mach 11, and was equipped with 6 individually-guided conventional warheads, each with 6 submunitions. Putin claims that "there are currently no ways of counteracting this weapon" The same claim was made of the Iskander, which has subsequently been shot down mulitple times by Patriots. So far, Ukraine has intercepted in extraordinary 80% of all missiles fired from Russia. Mach 11, if true, would put the Oreshnik on the upper limit of current hypersonic capabilities- very hard to intercept. On-the-ground reports indicate that explosions persisted in Dnipro for 3 hours after impact. 

The Oreshnik constitutes a significant escalation. It has the potential to negate air defenses around key Ukrainian locations. It is impossible to know the target until moments before impact. It is also impossible to know whether the payload is conventional or nuclear, although Russia already routinely uses nuclear-capable missiles, including Iskanders and KH101s. While the Oreshnik may not have the range to reach the US, Western Europe would be well within range, and is not equipped with commensurate land-based medium-range missiles that could hit launch sites within Russia.